The Trump Effect on Africa: How “America First” Is Shaping a New Era of Dependency

The Clinton, Bush, and Obama administrations significantly deepened the relationship between Africa and the US.
Initiatives like President Bush's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and Obama's continued aid allocations of $7-8 billion annually demonstrated a commitment to Africa's development. However, after Trump's first three years of presidency, he disrupted this momentum.

For Trump, making America great again means putting America first in all international and domestic affairs, regardless of the affected nations.
During his first term as US president, the fiscal budget of 2018 included plans to reduce funding to the Department of State and the US Agency for International Development (USAID) by 28%, implying that Africa experienced a budget cut of 13%. This move fueled fears that Africa could be neglected under Trump's second presidency.

Although historically, Trump has expressed minimal relations with African Leaders, it would be inaccurate to assume he completely disregarded the continent. He was and still is invested in strengthening military ties and supporting security in the African region; for example, he fostered the sale of aircraft from the US to assist the Nigerian government in fighting the Boko Haram Terrorists with the then-President Muhammadu Buhari.

Similarly, in early March, Trump's conversation with Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta focused on East Africa's security situation. Trump commended Kenya's efforts in combating al-Shabab and its contributions to the African Union Mission in Somalia. The leaders also explored ways to boost bilateral trade and investment in Kenya.
Their meeting marked 55 years of diplomatic relations between the US and Kenya, highlighting their engagements' growing scope and depth.

Before the election, Trump promised an America First Government, which included reviewing global policies via placing tariffs on trades that benefit from the US, clamping down on Immigration, and drastically reducing funding for shit-hole countries, as he called it. This vision largely contributed to his success in the election. While some observers hope Trump 2.0 will bring wealth to some countries and end wars, concerns linger that Africa will be overlooked due to his past indifference towards the continent.

Immediately after Trump was inaugurated into office, he signed dozens of radical executive orders, which included the 90-day freeze of USAID—with only emergency food programs and military aid to Israel and Egypt exempted, the clamp down on Immigration, withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, the Declaration of National Energy Emergency and Drastic reduction of US roles in World Health Organization/United Nations roles. These policies will undoubtedly significantly affect millions of lives, especially in Africa.

In this article, we show the effects of Trump's executive orders and how they will impact Africa.

Outline

- Introduction
- The Freezing of USAID
- Clamp down on Immigration
- Withdrawal from The Paris Agreement
- Declaration of the National Energy Emergency
- Threats to cut off funding for South Africa over Land Act
- Conclusion
- References

At the top of the list is the Freezing of USAID. January 20th marked the beginning of the countdown for the 90-day freeze on foreign aid.
Four days after, Peter Marocco, a political appointee from Trump's first term, drafted an order that resulted in the shutting down of thousands of programs and forceful furlough and layoffs.

Sub-Saharan Africa has been a beneficiary of this humanitarian assistance for several years, receiving about $7 billion in funds last year.
This move by the Trump administration threatens to counter several years of effort expended in combating the spread and mortality rate of HIV/AIDS and other diseases in Africa, where US-funded programs have been instrumental in providing life-saving treatment and support. This freeze is indeed a tough squeeze on Sub-Saharan Africa. Millions of HIV patients rely on the US PEPFAR program to access free medication and healthcare, but the consequence of being shut out now awaits them.

The aid freeze is heavily endorsed by Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), empowered by Trump to slash government spending and reduce the federal workforce. USAID, a primary target, has been accused by Musk of misappropriation of funds, funding' deadly programs', and labeled a 'criminal organization.'

Trump's strict immigration laws include several key changes. According to BBC, he has revived a policy from his first term, allowing for expedited removals of undocumented migrants anywhere in the US. Asylum hearings have been halted, and the entry of all undocumented migrants has been suspended. Trump has also expanded ICE's powers to arrest and detain migrants, including in sensitive areas. The US refugee resettlement program has been halted, and humanitarian programs for migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela have been ended.

These changes will have far-reaching consequences for Africans in the US. Economic support for communities and families back home may be disrupted. Africans in the US will face longer processing times and higher rejection rates for visas, making it harder to reunite with family or pursue education and work opportunities.

The Paris Agreement is a voluntary pact to prevent catastrophic climate change by limiting global warming. By withdrawing from this accord, the US, as the world's second-largest carbon polluter, is abandoning its commitment to this shared goal. Moreover, the US is joining Yemen, Iran, and Libya in rejecting the Paris Agreement.

Once, in 2012, Trump made some unfounded statements on his X post, saying that the concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese to make US manufacturing non-competitive.

His withdrawal from The Paris Agreement doesn't come as a surprise. The US withdrew its financial support by pulling out of the agreement, including a significant $3 billion contribution to the Green Climate Fund. The US's absence will be felt in future IPCC reports and will have a ripple effect on global carbon emission space and pricing.

African Climate campaigner Dean Bhebhe of Power Shift Africa expressed his valid concerns over Trump's decision. He said that for Africa already experiencing severe droughts, the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and rollback of environmental regulations can undermine global climate progress and put lives at risk.

In Africa, the impacts of climate change are already being felt, from devastating droughts to intense floods. The US alone contributes 14% of greenhouse gas emissions and Africa, only 4% bears the most brunt of climate changes. Hence, Trump's decision can exacerbate these issues, making it harder for African countries to adapt to the changing climate. The withdrawal of US funding for climate initiatives will leave a significant gap in support for African countries, which are already struggling to address the impacts of climate change.

With a promise to cut down America's energy cost by half and exit from climate treaties, Trump signed several energy-related documents taking down all restrictions on drilling.

In his inaugural address, he said, "We will drill, baby, drill!... We have something that no other manufacturing nation will ever have – the largest oil and gas of any country on Earth, and we will use it. We're going to use it."

While this is favorable news to US Fossil fuel executives who poured tens of millions of dollars into Trump's campaign, African oil sectors in Nigeria and Angola worry that Trump's reform could cause gas prices to lower globally, which could challenge their market. On the other hand, it will benefit countries reliant on fuel imports from the US, such as South Africa, Egypt, and Morocco.

US companies seeking to ensure a reliable supply of rare earth minerals may increase investments or form new alliances with African suppliers, potentially generating new jobs and economic growth.
Ultimately, the success of this initiative rests solely on the level of engagement and investment by US firms in African suppliers.

Donald Trump's first term significantly changed US funding for international organizations. He suspended funding for the UN health and family planning agencies and withdrew from its cultural organization and top human rights body. Specifically, Trump cut off US funding for:

1. UNAIDS: the joint UN program on HIV/AIDS
2. The World Health Organization (WHO): a global health leader
3. The UN Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA): which provides aid to Palestinian refugees

His administration also withdrew funds for programs that were not on par with his conservative views like:
The UN Population Fund (UNFPA): which provides reproductive health services.

He reinstated policies such as:
1. Mexico City Policy: Trump reinstated and expanded this policy, which prohibits US funding for foreign organizations that provide or promote abortion services.

2. Anti-abortion stance: The Trump administration sought to restrict global access to abortion, aligning with conservative and evangelical Christian values.

3. Defunding UNFPA: In the State Department letter to the US Foreign Relations Committee, the administration claimed, without evidence, that the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) supported coercive abortion and sterilization in China.

According to the agency, US funding in FY 2016 helped allow UNFPA to prevent 947,000 unintended pregnancies; 295,000 unsafe abortions; and 2,340 maternal deaths. Cutting off UNFPA funds implied more maternal deaths resulting from unsafe abortions.

These policies implemented by the Trump administration were reversed during the Biden presidency, but with Trump 2.0, these policies are being reinstated.

President Donald Trump unveiled plans to create an "External Revenue Service", a new department tasked with collecting tariffs, duties, and revenues from foreign sources. This move is part of Trump's broader effort to address the United States' trade deficit with Canada, Mexico, and China. The proposed department aims to ensure that foreign nations pay their "fair share" of tariffs, which Trump believes will help reduce the trade deficit.

"Through soft and pathetically weak Trade agreements, the American Economy has delivered growth and prosperity to the World while taxing ourselves. It is time for that to change," Trump wrote in his post on Truth social media.

"We will begin charging those that make money off of us with Trade, and they will start paying, finally, their fair share."

The establishment of this new department is likely to have worrisome implications for African countries, which rely heavily on international trade with the US. Imposing tariffs will disrupt global supply chains and increase consumer costs. African nations may need to reassess their trade relationships with the United States and explore alternative markets to mitigate the impact of these tariffs.

Donald Trump's sudden decision to cut funding to South Africa will have significant consequences for the country.

Without evidence, Trump, in a video, claimed that certain groups in South Africa are being mistreated. This is currently under investigation, and until the facts are known, he alleged that South Africa is seizing land and doing things that are "perhaps far worse."

The substantial financial support provided by the US, totaling $453 million in 2024, has been a vital lifeline for South Africa's efforts to combat HIV/AIDS.

The withdrawal of US funding will also jeopardize various social and economic development initiatives spearheaded by the US Agency for International Development (USAID). These programs, which address pressing issues such as climate change, gender inequality, and community violence, are crucial for promoting sustainable growth and development in South Africa. The loss of US funding will likely force South Africa to scale back vital initiatives, worsening the country's existing social and economic struggles.

The ripple effects of Trump's decision will be felt across multiple sectors, including healthcare, education, and community development. Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in South Africa, which rely heavily on international aid, will be affected. The sudden loss of US funding will force these organizations to scramble for alternative funding sources, which may be scarce. This could lead to a decline in essential services, ultimately affecting the most vulnerable members of South African society.

Africa stands at a critical crossroads where continued dependence on US aid and support has become increasingly precarious. Africa must adopt a new path focused on self-reliance and strategic diversification to curb the impact of the US's unpredictable foreign policy.

First, African countries must strengthen regional institutions like the African Union and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and accelerate internal economic integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), transforming the continent into a unified market of 1.3 billion people. This internal market strengthening is crucial for building resilience against external shocks and reducing dependency on foreign aid.

Second, African nations must rapidly develop domestic food security and agricultural self-sufficiency. This means investing heavily in modern farming techniques, irrigation systems, and local food processing capabilities. The continent possesses 60% of the world's uncultivated arable land - a tremendous asset that must be leveraged strategically.

Third, Africa should pursue a balanced approach to international partnerships, engaging more deeply with emerging powers like China, India, Turkey, and Brazil while strengthening South-South cooperation. However, this must be done carefully to avoid simply replacing one form of dependency with another.

Despite the challenges posed by the US's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, Africa remains a beacon of hope for climate action. The African Renewable Energy Initiative's ambitious goal of deploying 300 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030 is a testament to the continent's commitment to sustainable development.

Finally, The Executive Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Mr. Olanipekun Olukoyede, while delivering a keynote address at the Pan-African Conference on Illicit Financial Flows (IFFs) and Taxation disclosed that a whopping $88.6billion was lost to illicit financial flows in Africa annually. This is much more than it receives in development assistance and foreign direct investment.
African countries must prioritize domestic resource mobilization through improved tax collection, fighting corruption, and stemming illicit financial flows.

The key is not isolation from the US but building true resilience and negotiating power through economic strength and diversified partnerships. Africa's future lies in choosing itself first while engaging with all partners from a position of strength and sovereignty.